What's it all about?

Are you constantly suprised by where the world is going? Do events look predictable through hindsight and you feel like you should've seen it coming?

I don't believe that anyone has a true crystal ball - a way to predict on a detailed level what will happen in the future. But we do have capabilities for prediction at varying levels of success. The more complex the system, the less success we usually have. Even if some philosophers are right and the world is deterministic, from the very imperfect human point of view it will be semi-random since we cannot perceive or process everything. Thus the nature of world for us is highly probabilistic.

I care about the world, about humanity and the people in it. I see grand potential in technology but also the risks. My objective is to develop my personal crystal ball - to get some sense of where the world is going and perhaps, in a small way, contribute to correcting its course when possible. And on the way help those of you interested in improving your understanding do the same. Grandest of achievements are not achieved by individuals but by creative minds exchanging ideas. And after all, we're all standing on the shoulders of giants.

I will post on this blog about things that I feel have a significant impact on the world so the subjects will vary between (and combining) technology, politics, psychology, sociology, religion, history, etc. I wish to be challenged, to have my points invalidated via constructive arguments. I feel that the safe space echo chamber that the modern social media has largely turned into is highly detrimental to intellectual development and the antidote is forcing many different perspectives on yourself.

Be on the lookout for cognitive dissonance since it leads to way to uncovering the gaps in your model of the world.

The real-world crystall ball doesn't tell you the lottery numbers. It gives you a probability distribution between different categories of futures after serious thought, research, discussion and experimentation.